02/09/2010 - Anaheim, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Corey Perry had a goal and two assists to lead the Anaheim Ducks to a 4-2 win over Los Angeles and snap the Kings' franchise- best nine-game winning streak.
Saku Koivu and Teemu Selanne each had a goal and an assist while Ryan Getzlaf added a goal for the Ducks, who have won four of their last five games. Jonas Hiller stopped 35 shots in the win, Anaheim's 10th in a row at home to equal a franchise record.
Getzlaf left the game in the second period with a sprained left ankle. An X- rays revealed no broken bones.
Oscar Moller and Anze Kopitar each had a goal for the Kings, who had not lost since a 5-1 defeat at the hands of San Jose on January 19. Jonathan Quick stopped 29 shots in the loss.
The Kings drew first blood in the game at the 12:31 mark of the first. Alexander Frolov skated down the right side and from the right circle slammed on the brakes, spun around and sent a backhand pass to the slot, where Moller backhanded the puck into the net.
The Ducks, though, got the goal back with 90 seconds left in the frame as Selanne chipped the puck into the net from a sharp angle at the left side on the power play.
Anaheim took control of the game with a pair of goals early in the second period.
The first goal came 3:27 in as Perry caught up to the puck behind the left side of the LA net and threw a pass out front where Getzlaf one-timed it home.
Less than three minutes later, Selanne blasted a slap shot from the left circle that Quick stopped, but the rebound came out front and Koivu backhanded it in.
Los Angeles got a goal back with 1:54 to play in the second as Ryan Smyth sent a pass from the low right side to the slot where Kopitar threw a hard wrister into the back of the net.
However, Anaheim got the goal back just 24 seconds later when Perry flew into the LA zone and from the right circle snapped a wrister that beat Quick cleanly.
In the third, Hiller stopped all 18 shots he faced and helped kill an LA power play in the latter stages of the game to keep the Kings from making it a one-goal game.
Game Notes
Anaheim hosts Edmonton on Wednesday...LA hosts Edmonton on Thursday...The Kings had won five straight over Anaheim, including three this season...Anaheim went 2-for-4 on the power play while Los Angeles failed on all four of its chances.
<< Lady Vols rally to beat Vandy
Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kelley Cain scored a career-high 19 points
and No. 5 Tennessee came back from an eight-point deficit to top Vanderbilt,
69-60, to sweep the regular season series.
Glory Johnson, Angie Bjorklund and Aly
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Ilya Bryzgalov turned aside 33 shots for t
<< Stewart, Yip help Avs upend Blues
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chris Stewart had a goal and two assists as the
Colorado Avalanche downed the St. Louis Blues, 5-2, at Pepsi Center.
Brandon Yip had two goals while Paul Stastny added a goal and an assist for
the Avalanche
<< Jayhawks capitalize on turnovers to top Texas
Austin, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Marcus Morris posted 18 points, eight rebounds
and four assists, as No. 1 Kansas overcame a poor shooting performance by
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finishing with a season-high 36 points, along with nine assists and six
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over Go
Berdych, Dent victorious in San Jose >>
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Hoyas head north to battle Friars >>
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Georgetown had lost two of its previous three games heading
Alabama visits Kentucky in SEC action >>
Lexington, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Alabama Crimson Tide invade Rupp Arena
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3-6 mark versus l
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
To visit this internet sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your sports betting needs and World Series odds.
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
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