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09/14/2007 - Hangzhou, China (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Canada and Ghana are both coming off losses in their opening match, and a win is a must for either team if they are to hold out hope of advancing into the quarterfinals.
Canada took a 1-0 lead into halftime against Group C favorites Norway, but yielded a pair of second-half goals in the loss. Ghana was overmatched against Australia and suffered a 4-1 defeat, leaving plenty of room for improvement.
The Canada side that showed up in the first half was what many people expected to see. The North Americans worked their long-ball attack and applied constant pressure to a strong Norway defense. Striker Christine Sinclair displayed why she is such a dangerous weapon as she set up Canada's goal, and the team looked confident as they outplayed the favored Norwegians.
However, a different Canada team came out for the second half. They were passive and allowed Norway to dictate the pace of the game. Canada sat back and let Norway spend the majority of the half in the offensive third of the field, and despite the efforts of keeper Erin McLeod, they conceded two goals.
Against Ghana, Canada will have an easier time maintaining its attack and should be able to drop long balls over the top for Sinclair to run with. The star striker and team captain was a non-factor in the second half of the Norway game, and that needs to change in Canada is going to go anywhere in this competition.
McLeod proved that she is an asset between the posts, and although Canada's effort came up short, they proved that they can play with the world's top teams. Canada should be able to get past Ghana, which would set up a huge contest against Australia on the final day.
Ghana has never advanced past the group stage, and if Wednesday's game against Australia is any indication, that streak will not be broken this year. Ghana, which is the lowest ranked team in the tournament at 47th in the FIFA rankings, looked slow against Australia and they were never able to put together a consistent spell of play.
Team captain Adjoa Bayor failed to make any impact on the match at all, which severely hurt Ghana's chances of winning. Bayor is the playmaker that makes the Black Queens attack work, but without her creativity in the middle of the pitch, Ghana's offense sputtered.
The lone bright spot for Ghana came in the form of striker Anita Amankwa, who scored the team's goal and was able to get in behind the defense on a number of occasions.
However, Amankwa got little help, which is something she will need if Ghana is to have any chance at taking even a point from Canada.
Ghana's attack is nowhere near as potent as Norway's and they will have quite a struggle to crack the strong Canadian defense. Expect Sinclair to find the ball at her feet much more for Canada, and the Ghana defense to have a tough time stopping her.
A big result is what Canada needs to get back on track, and they certainly have the ability to do so against an outclassed Ghana side.
<< Rams CB Hill to miss Sunday's game against 49ers
St. Louis, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - St. Louis Rams head coach Scott Linehan
announced that starting cornerback Tye Hill will miss Sunday's game against
San Francisco after hurting his lower back in practice on Thursday.
Hill, the 15t
<< Simpson named suspect in casino robbery
Las Vegas, NV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Las Vegas police questioned former football
star O.J. Simpson and declared him a suspect Friday in a hotel room
armed robbery, involving sports memorabilia at The Palace Station Casino.
The form
<< Woods fires 63; leads Tour Championship by three
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tiger Woods used a stellar front nine Friday to
grab the lead after two rounds of the Tour Championship.
Woods completed his opening-round 64 earlier Friday, then came back with a
vengeance in the second
<< Marlins activate Pinto
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Florida Marlins activated left-hander
Renyel Pinto from the 15-day disabled list Friday.
Pinto, who is 2-4 with a 4.10 ERA and one save in 49 relief appearances this
season, has been on the DL since
Norway, Australia to battle for Group C lead >>
Hangzhou, China (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The top spot in Group C will be on the
line on Saturday when Australia meets Norway in the second game for both
teams.
Norway earned a tough 2-1 comeback win against Canada, while Austral
Hosts China, Brazil look to lock up berth in quarters >>
Wuhan, China (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - China opened its World Cup with a dramatic win
over Denmark and would all but lock up a spot in the quarterfinals with a win
or a tie against Brazil on Saturday.
China built a two-goal lead against Denmark i
United acquires Monteiro from Fire >>
Washington, D.C. (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - D.C. United announced Friday the club has
acquired Jerson Monteiro from the Chicago Fire in exchange for a conditional
2008 MLS SuperDraft pick. Uniteds roster included an open developmental spot
for the
Farfan could make season debut vs. Vitesse >>
Eindhoven, Holland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Three-time defending Eredivisie
champions PSV Eindhoven could get a extra boost of energy on Saturday when it
plays Vitesse at Philips Stadium.
Jefferson Farfan, who has missed all season due
The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES
It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.
BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES
All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.
COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES
Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.
TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES
Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.
RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.
PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.
JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.
SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.
VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES
Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.
DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES
Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES
I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.
BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES
Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.
BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES
Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.
RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES
A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.
PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers
Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.
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